Living worlds 2025

A study by the Berlin Institute examines how the structure of consumers is changing in the regions

Market research collects data on the consumer behavior of the population. It analyzes the purchasing power, wishes and attitudes of potential consumers. Because people have different product preferences depending on their age, phase of life and lifestyle, pay different attention to price, watch different TV programs and read different newspapers. Information about this helps companies decide which products to offer in the future or in which regions to invest.

In order to structure the multitude of information about the population, market researchers divide people into different consumer groups according to certain criteria. The Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK) based in Nuremberg, one of the largest market research institutes in the world, has developed a process that takes two dimensions into account: Consumers aged 14 and over are assigned to one of 15 biographical worlds according to their stage of life and financial situation. According to GfK's findings, the phase of life - from school and training through the employment and family phase to retirement - largely determines purchasing, consumption and media behavior. The economic situation determines how much money is available for consumption. In the middle phase of life, a distinction is made between top, middle and simple life situations, in the retirement phase between working class and middle class.

The distribution of the population across the worlds changes with demographic change and regional economic development. In regular representative population surveys, GfK analyzes how the population is distributed among the living environments. On the basis of this data, the Berlin Institute, on behalf of the GfK Verein, examined how the living environment is distributed today in the 38 administrative districts of Germany and how their structure is expected to develop by 2025.

The study “Lebenswelten 2025. How the structure of consumers in the regions is changing” is available to members of the GfK Verein.

The development of the living environment in Germany and its regions

The average age of the population in Germany is increasing and the population as a whole is shrinking. However, this does not apply to all age groups - the under-20s and 20 to 59-year-olds will be fewer, while in 2025 there will be more older people not only proportionally but also in absolute numbers. As a result, the working and family life worlds will probably all be less populated in 2025. This also applies to young people and students. The number of people over 60, on the other hand, is likely to increase by around a quarter.

Overall, the following applies: the younger the members of a lifeworld are on average, the more it shrinks. Therefore, the young worlds of the working and family phase will lose more than the middle ones by 2025. The older worlds of this phase, who have a middle or higher income, also include many 60-year-olds and older people who are still gainfully employed and whose number is likely to increase in the future - these worlds are therefore shrinking less sharply. Women and men in the “simple situation” are on average younger and go into (pre-) retirement earlier.

The development in the regions differs in part strongly from the national trends. This applies to both the current distribution of the population across the living environments and the forecast future development. In addition to demographic development, the central influencing factor is the economic situation of the regions. It determines how people's chances of getting a good job and thus a high income and a good professional position are. How attractive a region is for immigrants from Germany and abroad also depends on the economic situation - and that in turn influences the age structure. Because where many young people immigrate, the living environments of young and middle-aged people tend to remain stable. A small decrease or even a constant size of the living worlds of

Employment and family phases are therefore forecast primarily for those administrative districts that are economically prosperous and attract many young people from other regions.

The study contains a short analysis for each administrative district which, in addition to the calculated forecast, carries out a qualitative assessment of the respective demographic and economic situation and thus places the development of the structure of the living environment in a larger context.

"Lebenswelten 2025" was created on behalf of the GfK Verein and is only available to its members. The GfK Verein is a non-profit organization promoting marketing research.

Source: Nuremberg [GfK Association]