Smoking bans resulted in only slight revenue losses

Introduced in the German states of smoking bans have led to lost revenue in the hospitality sector in the short term. However, this was weaker than feared by many innkeepers. On cigarette provided in addition to the smoking bans, especially since 2007 prescribed electronic age identification for declining sales. These are the results of three studies RWI get around the issue of smoking based on different data.

The smoking bans in the hospitality industry introduced between August 2007 and July 2008 at the federal state level have resulted in an average drop in sales of around two percent. Especially shortly after the smoking bans came into force, sales fell. However, these seem to have weakened over time. In Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia, where the smoking ban could be circumvented by establishing so-called “smoking clubs”, there was no demonstrable drop in sales. Evaluations of business cancellations in the hospitality industry did not provide any reliable evidence that the smoking bans led to increased business operations.

For the investigation, commercial advertisements in the federal states and the monthly sales data of around 10.000 companies in the hospitality industry between January 2006 and September 2008, summarized at federal state level, were evaluated.

The economic impact of the smoking ban has been overestimated

A survey carried out by the RWI in cooperation with the IHK zu Essen and with the support of the IHK Nürnberg in June 2008 in more than 600 restaurants in North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria and Berlin also shows that the effects of the smoking bans were systematically overestimated in advance. In Bavaria, where the smoking ban was already in effect at the time of the survey, around 70% of the innkeepers reported that they had suffered a drop in sales. In North Rhine-Westphalia, where the smoking ban came into force after the survey, on the other hand, almost 80% of the innkeepers expected a decline in sales. The rejection of the smoking ban by guests was also higher in North Rhine-Westphalia (63%) than in Bavaria (54%), where there was already experience with a real smoking ban.

The survey results are put into perspective if it is taken into account that the sample contained an above-average number of bars and pubs that are more affected by the smoking ban than restaurants. If the results are corrected accordingly, 44% report falling sales in Bavaria, 55% expect losses in North Rhine-Westphalia.

From the restaurateurs' point of view, the best solution for non-smoking protection is by far the freedom to choose between smoking and non-smoking business, followed by the smoking ban without exceptions and the existing non-smoking protection laws.

Sales at the cigarette machines fell mainly due to age identification

A third RWI study on the effects of smoking bans at the federal state level shows that these have also led to a decline in sales of cigarette machines in the catering trade. However, the introduction of electronic age identification in January 2007 led to a far greater decline in sales at cigarette vending machines. It apparently discourages not only young people, but also adults from buying cigarettes from vending machines. The biggest losses in sales were from machines installed outdoors. At the same time, cigarette consumption in Germany fell significantly less, so it apparently shifted to other points of sale. The increase in the minimum age for purchasing and consuming cigarettes from 16 to 18 years as well as the nationwide smoking ban in federal institutions in September 2007 led to little or no verifiable changes in sales.

The basis of the study is an analysis of the monthly sales data from January 2006 to August 2008 of a leading cigarette machine operator in Germany at federal state level. This is the first time that comprehensive sales data from cigarette machines have been scientifically evaluated. This data enabled an initial impact analysis of the age identification on vending machines, the nationwide smoking ban in federal institutions and the recent increase in the minimum age for buying and consuming cigarettes in Germany.

The Ruhr Economic Papers # 172 “Much Ado About Nothing? - Smoking Bans and Germany's Hospitality Industry "and # 173" Public Smoking Bans, Youth Access Laws, and Cigarette Sales at Vending Machines "as well as RWI: Material, Booklet 58" A survey of catering establishments on the introduction of smoking bans in the hospitality industry: descriptive results " . You are under www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/  available as a pdf file.

Source: Essen [RWI]