The slaughter cattle market in March

Demand receives impulses

The events at the cattle and meat markets are likely to run smoothly again in the coming weeks of March, after trade was disrupted at least regionally in February by Carnival and Mardi Gras. In the course of the month, more and more noble cuts of the individual types of meat will move into the focus of events as part of stock purchases for Easter. This means that fixed prices can be expected for young bulls, calves for slaughter and lambs in particular; for cows and pigs for slaughter, the revenues should at least be stable.

Young bulls bring fixed prices

More young bulls are expected to be slaughtered in March than in the previous month, but the number of young bulls is likely to remain smaller than in previous years. The cattle census results of November 2003 already indicated this development. The supply tendency is confirmed by the fact that the number of slaughters has been a good one percent lower since the beginning of the year. The limited number of young bulls can presumably be sold smoothly. With a view to the Easter holidays at the beginning of April, the slaughter companies are likely to stock up on more noble cuts. The producer prices for young bulls will therefore continue to point slightly upwards in March. Strong premium is hardly to be expected, however, since the prices rose relatively significantly in February. At least that is what the current price development suggests. The producer prices will probably not come close to the result of March 2003; From today's perspective, a price gap of just under 20 cents per kilogram is likely to remain.

Larger range of slaughter cows

On the slaughter cow market, producer prices are likely to follow the seasonal trend of recent years. Fortifications can therefore be expected in March. A price line of 1,60 euros per kilogram for O3 cows would be quite conceivable. This would mean that the March 2003 quotations would be undercut by around 20 cents per kilogram. Stronger surcharges are unlikely, as the supply of slaughter cows in March is likely to be larger than in the previous month with a view to the end of the dairy year. The increase in supply could be within comparatively narrow limits, however, as 13 percent more cows were slaughtered in January than in the same month last year, even though the number of slaughter cows at the last cattle count was 0,9 percent lower than a year ago.

Impetus in veal demand

The prices paid for slaughtered calves have fallen continuously since the turn of the year, with the discounts being much more pronounced than in the previous year. For example, the prices for calves billed as a lump sum are expected to be around EUR 4,30 to EUR 4,40 per kilogram in February average. This drop in prices reflects the significantly weakened consumer demand for veal after the festive season. Calf prices for slaughter could recover somewhat in March. An increased demand for veal is to be expected before the Easter holidays. However, the expected higher veal demand will be offset by extensive calf slaughtering; Last but not least, Dutch veal suppliers will complement the range on the German market.

Lamb asked before Easter

In March the demand for lamb will gradually gain momentum; In the last week of March in particular, there are likely to be purchases of lamb for the upcoming Easter festival. Because at Easter, lamb traditionally has a boom among German consumers. The increased demand on the demand side is offset by a larger supply of slaughter lambs, because in anticipation of rising prices, many producers will initially hold back their lambs, but then offer them more. The prices paid out for slaughter lambs should reach their seasonal high in March. It remains to be seen whether the limit of four euros per kilogram of slaughter weight for lambs charged at a flat rate will be reached. The German range of lamb is supplemented by extensive deliveries from New Zealand and Great Britain.

Pig prices expected to be stable to firm

You are never safe from surprises on the slaughter pig market: In March 2003, for example, the prices for slaughter pigs fell unexpectedly sharply; in the current year, however, there are some indications for stable to fixed prices. On the one hand, the EU Commission for pork has introduced or increased export refunds for halves and cuts. The exports of German mail order companies should be boosted by this measure within certain limits. In addition, no significant relocation of pork from private storage is to be expected in March. In the case of a slightly larger supply of pigs compared to the previous year, there will hardly be any strong price jumps, especially since there had already been a significant increase in slaughter pigs prices in February due to the small number of supplies and constant demand from slaughterhouses. However, prices of around 1,30 euros per kilogram for e-pigs are quite conceivable. At the commodity futures exchange in Hanover, the price expectation at the end of the first week of February for March was also EUR 1,30 kilograms slaughter weight.

Source: Bonn [ZmP]