BDU sentiment barometer Economy / Autumn 2003
In the opinion of the management consultants regarding the current economic situation and the development of German companies in the coming six months, the upturn has become more tangible and tangible. This is the conclusion of the survey results of the 'Stimmungsbarometer Wirtschaft / Herbst 2003' published today in Bonn by the Bundesverband Deutscher Unternehmensberater BDU eV. Thereafter, especially the earnings situation in important sectors will improve. With a share of 45,8 percent, significantly fewer of the consultants surveyed also describe the current situation in industry and business as 'bad to very bad' than six months ago or the previous year
same time last year (spring 2003: 58 percent and fall 2002: 67 percent). Although more than half of the respondents still believe that job cuts will continue, the proportion of skeptics has declined significantly compared to the last two surveys. (BDU sentiment barometer spring 60,2: 2003 percent and fall 85,1: 2002 percent).
In the opinion of the consultants consulted, the earnings situation of German companies will in some cases significantly ease in the coming six months. 55 percent believe that the earnings situation in the capital goods industry (spring 2003: 19,7 percent), 42,4 percent in credit and insurance (spring 2003: 10,9 percent), 33,5 percent in the consumer goods industry (spring 2003: 15,7 percent) and 40 percent at the other services (spring 2003) will 'improve a little bit noticeably'. On the other hand, companies in the construction and healthcare sectors will have to hope for better numbers. Around half of the management consultants forecast that the earnings situation here will continue to 'deteriorate' to a noticeable degree. In the BDU sentiment barometer spring 2003, the proportion of skeptics had also been just below 60 percent.
The consultants expect a slow turnaround for the future employment situation in Germany. Around 60 percent of those questioned still believe that companies will not be able to offer their employees a secure job, but in spring 2003 this proportion was over 85 percent. Almost 25 percent assume the level will remain the same (spring 2003: 8,7 percent) and 15 percent see opportunities for 'slightly more or more jobs' in Germany (spring 2003: 5,6 percent). The consultants see prospects for new jobs above all in the service sector and in the TIMES sector (transport / media / IT). In contrast, job cuts, especially in the credit and insurance sectors (75 percent of those surveyed) and in the construction industry (85,9 percent of those surveyed) will continue in the next six months.
More optimistic than in recent months, the BDU members appreciate the willingness of German companies to set the course for a better corporate future with pioneering product or process innovations. While 2002's 42 percent in the fall and 2003 37,3's spring poll in the spring are convinced that Germany's innovation activity is set to increase, its share in the current survey has again increased significantly to 55,6 percent. The biggest potential for innovative products or services is seen by the investment capital industry (15,3 percent) consultants in the TIMES sector (15,3 percent), healthcare (13,3 percent), and credit and insurance (12,4 percent).
The willingness of companies to invest over the next six months is also growing in the opinion of the consultants. In the process, growing budgets are being used for product innovations - especially for research and development. The expansion of production capacity continues to play virtually no role in the investment motives in all ten sectors examined. However, a large part of the invested funds will flow abroad. For example, around 68 percent of BDU consultants surveyed expect higher foreign investment in the capital goods industry (spring 2003: 47,1 percent), 46,7 percent in the consumer goods industry (spring 2003: 32,3 percent), 38,4 percent in the consumer goods industry (spring 2003: 26,4 percent) and 34,8 Percent in the TIMES industry (spring 2003: 24,6 percent).
BDU President Rémi Redley: "The results of our Economic Sentiment Indicator show that the first thing to do is to strengthen the first soft roots of the recovery and to provide the right manure, and the leaders of all political parties must put off their party-political games, the announced reforms In order to finally create the necessary planning security for the German economy, only then can the really decisive breakthrough in investment readiness and dynamics in Germany succeed. "
In the BDU Economic Barometer, some 1.200 management consultants from BDU consultancy companies are surveyed on future developments in the German economy. The survey is conducted twice a year as a spring and autumn voting barometer. For a total of ten industries (capital goods, consumer durables and consumer goods, construction, energy / water, trade / crafts, credit and insurance, healthcare, TIMES (transport / media / IT), other services), the consultants give their assessment regarding the earnings situation , the development of sales, innovation and investment activity as well as the employment situation in German companies for the next six months.